The party isn’t ignoring the issue: The Democratic Governors Association earlier this month rolled out a statistical model to its pollsters to account for late-deciding or defecting voters that could swing against the party’s candidates at the end.
Democrats say they hope Trump’s low approval ratings mean voters will swing toward, not against, their candidates in the closing days of elections to come. But that doesn’t seem to have happened in Georgia — even though Trump lagged behind other Republicans there in last year’s presidential election.
Cahaly, the Atlanta-based pollster who works for GOP clients, said he thinks that, in many places, Republicans are less likely to want to share their vote choice with pollsters than are Democrats. That has impacted how he’s interpreted his data.
“I’ve had numerous clients where I’ve said, ‘You’re dead even, so you’re up by 3,’” Cahaly recalled Wednesday. “And they said, ‘What do you mean?’ And I said, ‘You’re up by 3.’” Full Article: